Could 2012 be the most competitive Senate election in years?

December 19, 2011

Washington Post

Posted by Aaron Blake

Twenty Senate seats have changed hands since 2006, the most competitive back-to-back-to-back election cycles since the 1940s. And it might only get more competitive in 2012.

The nature of the map and the high number of quality candidates who have stepped forward in the first year of the 2012 election cycle could put upwards of half of the 33 Senate seats in play.

Already, the Cook Political Report lists 10 Senate races as toss-ups — more than at this point in the 2010, 2008 or 2006 elections. Cook also rates 21 races as being at least somewhat competitive at this point, which is at least five more than any of the three preceding elections.

And if the Senate is indeed at stake — Republicans need to gain three seats for a tie and four for the majority — it appears as though it won’t be decided in just a couple states, but rather by competitive races all over the country.

In recent weeks, the 2012 map has taken a turn for the competitive.

Two of the seats that have long been at the top of the Line — North Dakota and Nebraska — both look like they are something closer to toss-ups today, especially if Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson (D) seeks reelection.

Meanwhile, other states that don’t appear on the Line are starting to look even more competitive. Republicans have new hope in states like Florida, Hawaii and Michigan, while Democrats say they could have a third bona fide pickup opportunity in Arizona and some hope in Indiana if Sen. Richard Lugar (R) loses his primary.

In any other year, all or most of those states would have a good chance at making the Line. But the top 10 Senate races this time around are genuine toss-ups at the moment.

So what does it all mean? Practically, it means the national parties and outside groups could have a lot of races competing for their attention.

If so many toss-ups remain on the map, Republicans will again have to decide whether to go after the cheaper states or the states that appear the most winnable. For example, are they going to go to great lengths to defend Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in the Boston media market, or try to win an open seat New Mexico, which is much cheaper the play in?

Translation: it should be a fun cycle. And we shouldn’t lose track of the Senate races even as the presidential race heats up.

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