Gang of Six collapse: Winners and losers

May 23, 2011

The Hill

Bob Cusack

The collapse of the Gang of Six this week has had far-reaching ramifications on Capitol Hill, with the group’s failure to produce a deficit-reduction plan yielding winners and losers.

The group’s implosion, coupled with other budget plans that have failed to gain traction, has given the spotlight to Vice President Joe Biden and his bipartisan effort to cut spending while also raising the nation’s debt ceiling.

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), who bolted the Gang of Six this week, has left open the possibility of returning. However, political analysts on both the left and the right note that the Gang has had months to iron out a deal, claiming it is unlikely that a plan from the six members will ever emerge.

The following is The Hill’s analysis of who benefited, and who didn’t, from the demise of the Gang of Six.

Winners
Grover Norquist: The anti-tax advocate had been pressuring Coburn to leave the talks, arguing that Democrats would only agree to a deal if it contained tax increases. Coburn has denied he caved, calling the head of the Americans of Tax Reform (ATR) a “fly on the wall.” He has also continued to say a deficit solution will require something on “revenue,” a phrase that could mean he is open to tax hikes — the very thing Norquist, the keeper of the ATR Taxpayer Protection Pledge — has worked to prevent.

Love him or hate him, Norquist wields a ton of clout. MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell has called Norquist the “most powerful man in America who does not sleep in the White House.”

Vice President Joe Biden: The Biden talks are now the only game in town, and if a compromise is produced, Biden will further burnish his reputation as a dealmaker.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.): Senate leaders were never fans of the Gang of Six, which they couldn’t control and which had the possibility of disrupting preparations for the 2012 campaign. The leaders have far more authority in the Biden discussions because they selected who they wanted to participate in the bipartisan negotiations. McConnell, who took a back seat in the government shutdown debate, has taken clear steps to show he will be a major player in the debt-ceiling talks.

Sens. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) and Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.); Reps. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): Their relevance has risen with the elevation of the Biden talks.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and the left: Sanders said this week, with some satisfaction, that he was never a fan of the Gang of Six. The independent senators has rallied against any plan to pare back Social Security benefits.

Ryan McConaghy, deputy director of the Economic Program at Third Way, said the winners from the Gang of Six failure "are anybody on the ideological extremes, anybody who did not want to see a compromise."

Sens. James DeMint (R-S.C), Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and the right: The right wing was never going to compromise and vote for a Gang of Six package. Conservatives, including Norquist, say a better long-term deal can be struck after the 2012 election. With Democrats having to defend 23 seats and the GOP 10, many Republicans believe they will control the House and Senate in 2013. They are not as bullish, however, on winning the White House.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.): The Ryan budget is the most solidly fleshed out budget proposal out there. The Gang of Six compromise could have eclipsed it — however, the Ryan plan has split the GOP and faces a big test in Tuesday’s special election contest in New York’s 26th district.

Losers
Gang members Sens. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.): Conrad and Warner get A’s for effort and for tirelessly pushing their party to face the mounting debt. But the fact is, it has been an especially terrible week for Conrad, who saw six months of working to unite the Gang of Six, and separate attempts to move a Democratic budget resolution also had to be delayed. “He has got to be tearing his hair out,” one friend said. If the remaining Gang of Five can produce something and bolster the Biden talks with it, some damage could be repaired. Warner, like Conrad, is a key centrist who tried to hold the Gang together; in that primary mission both have appeared to fall short.

While Warner is a freshman senator, Conrad will leave office next year. He had hoped to play a major role in attacking the nation’s record deficit.

Asked May 1 on “Fox News Sunday” about the Gang of Six plan, Conrad said, “If we don’t [release a plan soon], we’re simply not going to be relevant, because this debate marches on,” he said. It’s three weeks later, and Conrad now faces a challenge to remain relevant on this high-profile issue.

Gang members Sens. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.): These senators are trying to keep the talks going, but with Coburn gone they are facing the brunt of conservative ire. Tripp Baird of Heritage Action said Crapo has been damaged the most and will be hurt more by sticking with the remaining group. Crapo has said there cannot be a Gang of Five deal and that Coburn has to be lured back for the talks to produce something.

GOP 2012 presidential candidates: The failure of the Gang of Six, by ensuring a grand solution to the deficit is not achieved before 2012, also ensures the elections next year will be about the Ryan budget’s cuts to Medicare and Obama’s inability to tame the debt. Bob Bixby of The Concord Coalition pointed out that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and others will now face many questions about the Ryan plan, something popular in the primaries but possibly poisonous in the general election. Last week, Newt Gingrich stumbled badly when trying to explain his position on the Ryan plan.

Mixed Outcome
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), ex-Gang of Six member: By walking away, Coburn repaired his standing with conservatives. Tripp Baird of Heritage Action said Coburn comes out great because he has exposed liberals as being bent on bankrupting Medicare. But Neera Tanden, of the liberal Center for American Progress, said that only by staying at the table did Coburn and fellow conservatives have any hope of getting their ideas enacted by President Obama’s pen.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Gang of Six member: Durbin has been hammered by liberals for signing onto the White House's fiscal commission report, which called for cuts to Medicare and Social Security. By standing up to Coburn forcefully in the talks, especially on Medicare, Durbin repairs his standing with the Democratic base. On the other hand, like other Gang members, the failure of an effort that could have put a significant Durbin stamp on a deficit package does cost him. Baird said that conservatives can now more easily criticize Durbin and other liberals for being unwilling to touch entitlement spending.

President Obama: With the action moved to the Biden talks, the White House can direct the deficit conversation and will not be hit by a Gang of Six Social Security plan, which would have forced a difficult choice between backing compromise and sticking with the left. However, the White House had back-channel communications with the Gang of Six and, depending on what it came up with, could have come out solidly behind their plan, liberal sources said. Such a proposal, embraced by Obama, had the tantalizing possibility of removing spending as a 2012 campaign issue and could have taken away a key GOP uniting message, Bixby said.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio): Like Ryan, Boehner benefits from the Gang of Six failure by continuing to stand up for a House-passed budget that is popular with conservatives. By the same token, defending the plan could hurt because its proposed cuts to Medicare have given Democrats hope of winning back the House. A Gang of Six compromise could have allowed the Ryan plan to fade away. Additionally, Boehner has placed huge stakes on getting an acceptable amount of spending cuts from the Biden talks in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.

The final deal on the fiscal 2011 budget disappointed many freshmen. Unable, in the end, to shoot the hostage and allow the U.S. to default, Boehner will have to compromise again. A Gang of Six solution, had it contained enough on entitlements and long-term spending to please freshmen, could have ended the debt-ceiling controversy.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.): Pelosi initially called the fiscal commission’s plan “simply unacceptable.” In the short term at least, Pelosi benefits from the Gang’s collapse. However, it remains to be seen what kind of deal will emerge from the Biden talks and how relevant Pelosi and her Democratic colleagues will be in those discussions. Pelosi was not in the room when the fiscal 2011 budget deal was struck, and subsequently voted against it. A similar outcome could occur in the debt-ceiling debate.

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