Montana Chamber: Tester up 5

December 6, 2011

Politico

David Catanese

A poll commissioned by the Montana Chamber of Commerce shows Sen. Jon Tester with a 5 percentage point lead over Rep. Denny Rehberg in the Senate race, 42 percent to 37 percent.

The data, obtained by POLITICO, was collected in mid-November by Market Research Insight and appears to be the first public survey to show a lead outside the margin of error. Thirteen percent are "uncertain."

While the margin of error isn't included in the memo, the sample of 600 voters means it is likely around 4 percent.  It was composed of 49 percent Republicans and 32 percent Democrats.

It also comes just as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce — a completely separate entity — has unloaded an air assault on Tester, targeting energy policy.

More data points from the 17-page memo:

46 percent say Montana's economy is on the right track; just 21 percent say the same about the national economy.

The top financial concern is health care at 26 percent.

President Barack Obama loses to a generic Republican 36 percent to 31 percent with 23 percent "uncertain."

Former Rep. Rick Hill leads the GOP gubernatorial primary, 29 percent to 15 percent over Ken Miller.  But a whopping 40 percent remain undecided.

A Public Policy Polling survey released last week had the Republican Rehberg up 2 precentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent.

The Montana Chamber is expected to make an endorsement in the Senate race sometime during the summer of 2012.

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