Rep. Paul Ryan's budget sets 2012 stage

April 5, 2011

Politico

JONATHAN ALLEN

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan unveiled his much-anticipated fiscal 2012 budget Tuesday, giving structure to the conservative vision for America’s future and possibly laying the policy groundwork for the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.

To conservatives, the Wisconsin Republican’s 10-year plan for cutting roughly $6 trillion in spending is a product of bold leadership that will begin to rein in out-of-control entitlements and slash deficits.

For liberals, it’s a naked assault on the poor, the disabled and the elderly, alongside massive tax cuts for the privileged.

In truth, it’s a purely political document — an ambitious treatise, accented with full-color graphs and charts, that will be the subject of countless campaign commercials, fundraising e-mails and debate questions at both the presidential and congressional levels in 2012. That could cause some discomfort for Republicans in swing districts. But many of them faced questions about Ryan’s sister plan, his ‘Roadmap for America’s Future’ and lived to tell about it.”

It was clear within moments of the budget’s official release at 10 a.m. that it caught the eye of the still-developing GOP presidential field.

“Thanks to Paul Ryan in Congress, the American people finally have someone offering real leadership in Washington,” said 2012 contender Tim Pawlenty in a release sent out Tuesday morning. “President Obama has failed to lead and make tough choices his entire time in the White House. … We must get our fiscal house in order with real spending cuts and with real structural reforms that stop the spending spree before it bankrupts our country.”

How much it defines the presidential debate remains an open question.

“Based on polling of independents and women, especially in the Midwest, you have to have a plan to reduce the debt to be credible,” says Rob Collins, president of American Action Network. “Most campaigns, including Obama’s, will tweak their proposals either Ryan-light or Ryan-heavy, but this plan will frame the budget debate for 2012.”

But that view isn’t universal. Just as presidential contenders may borrows from Ryan’s plan, his echoes years of Republican orthodoxy and platform-building.

“The broad contours of the national debate on spending, deficits and the size of government have already been set. So, it’s a certainty that the 2012 Republican contest will focus on finding the best candidate, many of whom aren’t in Congress, to go against Obama on cutting spending and creating jobs,” Kevin Madden, an adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign, told POLITICO. “But, voters around the country aren’t as inclined as the Washington crowd to judge individual candidates through the lens of a proxy battle over a specific legislative proposal. I expect each candidate in the 2012 race will have a record and a vision of their own to present to voters."

Over 10 years, Ryan envisions cutting $1.7 trillion from domestic discretionary programs, $1.4 trillion by starving the new health care law, $1 trillion from Iraq and Afghanistan, and $771 billion by turning Medicaid into a block-grant program. Between “de-funding” the new health care law and the restructuring of Medicaid, that program would see cuts of $1.4 trillion over the next decade — though the pain of that may be overstated given that the spending for the new health care law hasn’t gone into effect yet. Ryan leaves Social Security alone.

On one level, Ryan’s projected savings aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. The plan is dead on arrival in the Senate. Even if it weren’t budgets are not binding — and there’s a new one, with new projections, every year. Except, that is, for last year, when House Democrats, for the first time in modern budgeting history, failed to produce one.

From a legislative perspective, the key numbers are these: For fiscal 2012, the government would spend $3.529 trillion and collect $2.533 trillion, for a deficit of $995 billion — or $393 billion less than the projected $1.388 trillion deficit for this year; and over 10 years, the cumulative debt would be $1.7 trillion less than is currently projected because Ryan’s savings are offset by tax cuts to the tune of $4.2 trillion.

But from a political perspective, it’s a new frame for the centuries-old debate over the size, scope and responsbilities of the federal government.

“Americans face a monumental choice about the future of their country. This budget resolution re?ects that choice. It disavows the relentless government spending, taxing, and borrowing that are leading America, right at this moment, toward a debt-fueled economic crisis and the demise of America’s exceptional promise,” Ryan writes in an introduction to his budget. “It chooses instead a path to prosperity – by limiting government to its core constitutional roles, keeping America’s promises to seniors, and unleashing the genius of America’s workers, investors, and entrepreneurs.”

Ryan and his GOP allies say they’re saving Medicare and Medicaid from certain ruin. For Medicaid, that means capping benefits and giving block grants to the states to design programs as they see fit. For Medicare, it means subsidies for purchasing private insurance — a fundamental shift in the program from the public sector to the private sector.

Democrats say Ryan is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. “Following a long-honored tradition, Republicans are masking the true impact of just what the GOP FY 2012 budget will do,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s office said in a release to reporters Tuesday morning.

They accuse Ryan of dismantling safety-net programs that are vital to what Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the top Democrat on the Budget Committee, calls the “the most vulnerable of the vulnerable.”

What’s clear is that is that Ryan has rekindled an epic fight over values, priorities and the role that government plays in the lives of its citizens. That could be uncomfortable for some Republicans — and budget resolutions typically are adopted by the narrowest of margins in the House — but it’s a debate many of Ryan’s colleagues want to engage in as soon as possible.

It starts tomorrow when the Budget Committee marks up the resolution.

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